Labour unrest potential in SA 11 Jan 2013

In South Africa the potential for labour unrest is high. Dairy producers Dairy Bell’s staff has been on strike for the past seven weeks whilst it seem as if bus drivers in Pretoria, the capital, walked out on strike as well leaving the bus service temporarily terminated.

 With so called farm workers in the Western Cape on strike (more seasonal workers than permanent farming employees) since 9 January 2013 with more than 115 arrested already by 11 January, the strike potential for 2013 rose. Adding a threat from the NUM that more strikes can be expected in the mining industry the potential and outlook is positive for more strikes. The private security officers has since October 2012 threatened with strike action or a three day stay away and a planned march to the Union Buildings demanding  R7 500 minimum wage on 14 December 2012 failed. There desire to march and stay away from work is still prevailing.

The strike potential in SA will be influenced by

·         The current strike in the Western Cape and the opening of negotiations on 11 January with a group of farmers with a possible increase of an estimated R100 - R110 (not their desired R150 per day) on the cards. Wage expectations, the “violent feeling” and being “part of the striking struggle” could be sparked in other sectors.

·         The effects of the 2012 mining sector strikes will possibly result in job reductions and retrenchments would be the order of the day. More mines could follow the example set by Harmony where the Kusasalethu mine near Carletonville is closed in totality, a Section 189 process initiated and after 60 days retrenchments of as many as 6 000 people could be the order of the day as the labour mood and effects of the 2012 strikes have made it unbearable to manage the mine in a safe manner. The closure of the mine in order to safeguard people is supported by the Chamber of Mines. Remark. The initial 2012 prominent and later “behind the scenes union AMCU has since 2012 at for example the Harmony Kusasalethu mine gained the majority status from NUM with 62% representation.

·         Wage negotiations in the mining sector will commence early this year with high expectations for increases following the increases passed on in 2012 by for example Lonmin Platinum.

·         The presentation of the African Cup of Nations Soccer Tournament could be regarded as a forum to gain international sympathy for workers’ rights and conditions whilst it is not excluded that security officers employed in event security functions could boycott the soccer security services requirements following earlier threats to that effect in 2012.

Fitch Ratings cut South Africa’s credit rating to the second-lowest investment grade because of slowing economic growth, a widening budget deficit and rising unemployment which will all be further negatively affected by strike action and violence in SA.